Friday 25 December 2009

China Vs. Brazil

 

China's economic prowess is well documented. But as Louis Basenese explains, while China represents a compelling investment opportunity, it isn't necessarily the best one. He notes some striking differences between Brazil and China. And explains why he favors Brazil in a head-to-head battle with China.

 

Forget China... It's Time to Bank on the Brazilian Consumer

Louis Basenese

Louis Basenese
Small Cap and Special Situations Expert

Hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens are on a crash course with the middle class.

A study from The McKinsey Quarterly supports this well-documented phenomenon, which estimates that it will take two decades before the Chinese nouveau riche reaches its full spending potential.

 

In turn, they're convinced that decades worth of profits are up for grabs.

I'm not about to refute that claim here. But instead, I want to caution you: Don't be blinded by the euphoria over Chinese consumers and overlook an equally compelling opportunity in another emerging market.

Let's head down to Brazil and I'll explain why - along with the best way to profit, of course...

Sizing Up the Profits in Brazil

Okay, I get that the scale of the Chinese opportunity - a population of 1.31 billion people, compared to Brazil's 192 million citizens - dwarfs Brazil's. But that doesn't mean the profit potential is any less.

On the contrary, in fact... I'd actually say it's greater when it comes to tapping into a blossoming middle class. In this regard, Brazil boasts several notable advantages over China...

  • It's a democratic nation, not a communist one.
  • Its population is much younger - the median age is 28.3, compared to 33.6 in China.
  • Brazil is far less reliant on exports. Only 14% of Brazil's GDP comes from exports, compared to 35% from China.
  • It already possesses all the natural resources necessary (and then some) to support its booming economy. Meanwhile, China needs to go out and gobble up foreign assets to ensure it can keep feeding its economic machine with enough oil, gas, coal, iron ore, etc.

But most important of all is the cultural difference. The Chinese are notorious savers, yet Brazilians love to spend, spend, spend. And don't just take my word for it. As Illan Goldfajn, Chief Economist at Brazilian bank, Itaú, reveals, "If the world is looking for savers, Brazil is not much good... But if it's looking for consumers, then we might be able to help."

Conspicuous Consumption, South of the Equator

Like China, Brazil's economy is also expanding at a healthy clip. GDP growth this quarter is expected to check-in at a tidy annualized rate of 9%.

As a result, unemployment is falling and incomes are rising. And that's leading to an explosion in the middle-class.

Over the last four years alone, Brazil's middle class has swelled by 24%, lifting roughly 20 million people out of poverty, according to Brazil's Census Bureau.

Furthermore, PriceWaterhouseCoopers Consultancy expects this rapid increase to continue. So much so, in fact, that it will propel Brazil's largest city, São Paulo, from the forty-sixth spot on the world's wealthiest city list to fifth place in a little over a decade.

And I have no doubt all that newfound wealth will quickly be spent. Because it already is being spent! Consider this...

  • High-end jeweler Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) boasts more stores in São Paulo than anywhere else in the world.
  • Handbag maker, Louis Vitton earns some of its highest profits per square foot in Brazil.
  • And consumer credit use is up roughly 30% per year for the last three years.

And despite all this, Brazil's consumer-spending boom is still in its infancy. Thanks to a surging economy and stable inflation, we can expect more and more Brazilians to be able to afford their first mobile phones, cars, even homes in the years to come.

And if you want to know the hands-down, best way to profit from this trend, here it is...

How to Add Some Brazilian-Style Swing to Your Portfolio

Go with small caps.

I say that because the majority of the companies in Brazil's small-cap sector cater to domestic consumers (either directly or indirectly).

We're talking about businesses like...

  • Banks
  • Homebuilders
  • Department stores
  • Telecoms
  • Airlines

These industries are destined to profit the most - and in turn, witness the most appreciation in stock prices, as conspicuous consumption takes root south of the equator.

And for you naysayers and China lovers out there, the stats back up my claim that Brazil is a better place to profit right now. Brazilian stocks are up 128% this year, compared to a 62% rise for Chinese stocks, based on the MSCI/Barra indexes.

Momentum is squarely on our side. So don't fight it... embrace it!

Thanks and Regards,

Navneet Singh Chauhan.

Thursday 24 December 2009

Future of BPO…

Rage Frameworks' Venkat Srinivasan: 'The BPO Market Is Not Sustainable in the Long Run'

Published: December 17, 2009 in India Knowledge@Wharton

"There is automation, and then there isautomation," says Venkat Srinivasan, co-founder and CEO of Rage Frameworks, a Massachusetts-based startup whose technology he claims will radically change the way companies manage business processes. Rather than investing in outsourcing or business process management tools, Srinivasan -- a New Delhi-raised serial entrepreneur -- says companies now need to move up the evolutionary scale and embrace automation that lets them segment and change the way they work with hyper speed and efficiency. But is business process automation -- or BPA -- simply adding to the alphabet soup of tech jargon?

The following is an edited transcript of Srinivasan's recent interview with India Knowledge@Wharton.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Could you explain the differences between business process automation (BPA), business process management (BPM) and business process outsourcing (BPO)? Because the acronyms are so similar, it's easy for people to confuse the three. And specifically, what is going on in the BPA market in which Rage Frameworks plays?

Venkat Srinivasan: We are constantly trying to do a better job of [explaining the differences] on our website and in our presentations. The way we define and practice BPA makes it a new category. There is no well-established BPA market. It is a market that we are, in some ways, creating. Having said that, let's parse those three items separately.

Business process outsourcing, or BPO ... is based on cost arbitrage, with players who are in low-cost locations around the world that shift the burden of work [from one location to another to take advantage of lower costs]. Everyone understands this is basic BPO. You are throwing bodies at a problem. About 10 years ago, that certainly was an attractive proposition for companies. Therefore, we have a large BPO market today, which is still growing at double-digit rates. At Rage Frameworks, our view is that the BPO market is not sustainable in the long run. That market has to evolve.

There are several factors that make cost arbitrage evaporate over time. First, the "pop" you get from cost arbitrage is one-off. Let's say you transfer a business process to India. You lower your costs by a third, but then that's it. The second factor is that costs in the low-cost locations will rise. It's the basic forces of demand and supply. There is now significant wage inflation in India. The "pop" you got in the first year is going to be whittled down, because you have 20% to 30% wage increases each year. (That is a good thing for people in India.)

If you play this out for five years, the cost differential isn't going to be as much as it was when you shifted the work overseas. It will probably never be equal. Otherwise, there would be no reason to go. But when you add up all the other issues that go with it, BPO becomes unsustainable in the long term. Companies currently relying on BPO will have to evolve to a different model.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Are you suggesting that business process automation is part of the evolution of BPO?

Srinivasan: That's right. It's where both BPO and BPM have to end up. The other issue with BPO is that you don't get to a better place with it. Most BPO companies today promise their clients that they will improve processes. However, throwing bodies at the problem gives you, at best, some basic technology solutions. All the BPO business models tend to be "body" driven; pricing is the number of bodies multiplied by the cost per body and there is very little incentive to improve processes.

India Knowledge@Wharton: In that traditional BPO model, no customer is going to get the scale they need.

Srinivasan: Yes, scale, as well as process improvement. Businesses are ultimately interested in improving their processes. As you scale up, different problems emerge. As new business trends and needs in the market arise, your business processes need to change. With BPO, a customer doesn't get any flexibility in execution. You get only lower cost with BPO. At Rage, we have large, global clients, and many of them are big BPO users. They are very frustrated. It is obvious that in moving the market toward BPA, these firms clearly recognize that shipping 700 jobs to Malaysia to lower costs isn't necessarily better in the long term.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Now let's look at business process management.

Srinivasan: The operative letter here is the M. BPM is largely a set of software providers, who have evolved from the days of Six Sigma and reengineering.... If you look at a typical large enterprise, there are a plethora of business process challenges. There is no systematic institutionalization of their processes. When things get to a head, somebody says, "Either call in Six Sigma-qualified consultants or get somebody to help us reengineer our process." ....Generally, the company has an intimate idea of what it does on a day-to-day basis, but there is no holistic view of the process. Without that view, you can't attempt to figure out how to do things differently. The consultants provide that value.

....A primitive form of BPM is a flow-chart tool. Today, BPM vendors are more sophisticated. They allow you to document, manage and measure processes. Then you take the processes and go to a technology-services company and say, "Here are our current processes and here are the processes we want. Can you help us implement [the change]?" The next generation of BPM vendors has moved into facilitating implementation. Several tools now generate code to implement business processes. That's where the big differentiation is between what they do and we do with BPA.

There are several issues with the current generation of BPM tools. You don't solve the age-old problem of time-to-market. By the time this technology is built for your new process, the process is outdated. It is of no use. It still takes a long time to implement.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Processes are constantly evolving.

Srinivasan: Exactly. It is never-ending. The entire essence of BPM is to increase agility. Some firms talk about their "agile" BPM methodology. While it is more agile than before, it still takes a long time, and because its implementation is still done in a conventional paradigm by generating code, that solution is often outdated. This generates frustration at large, global institutions.

Let's go on to the way we practice BPA. An acronym such as BPA doesn't do justice to what we do.... Let's think about how conventional software development life cycle (SDLC) works. You have an idea. You take the idea and expand it into a set of requirements. Then you design it and your development team codes it. You test it and you release it.

Technology development, over the years, has come a long way. However, the focus has been on tools to help achieve more consistency and faster throughput. Twenty years ago, technology execution was a big [issue], but the problems were reliability and consistency, as was coding and programming. We focused on whether you were a good programmer or a bad programmer. Today, countless firms are good at basic programming. Good programming is fast becoming a commodity. I don't want to trivialize the value of good programming or engineering, but there are lots of CMM Level 3+ firms out there. They do a great job of giving you consistency and reliability. That issue has been largely resolved.

The issues that have not been resolved is time-to-market and flexibility. When you go through SDLC, you take a company's business description and translate it into a machine-readable description. The translations don't add any additional value. The idea is still your idea, but to get it to work requires the translations, and they take time and are of no practical value. If you could implement your business idea without programming, why would you not do it?

Rage has created a technology platform where -- instead of a forward engineering-oriented lifecycle going from an idea to release in a clockwise cycle -- we have eliminated many steps by creating an abstract engine that understands the idea of software development.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Can you share an example?

Srinivasan: A 100-year-old global financial institution needs to roll out a new credit card. It knows exactly what it wants to do in terms of a process to evaluate an applicant and issue, reject or price a credit card properly. This is the business process. [But] with millions of applicants, [the process] not scalable without technology. The firm estimates that -- even with BPM tools -- it would take 18 months to roll out the new credit card.

India Knowledge@Wharton: And this is in a very experienced firm. No other firm would be able to do it faster?

Srinivasan: That's right. In this case, there is no physical product. The process is its product. It evaluates your risk and then calculates what level of risk it is willing to take and how to price the card. We did this for them in two weeks, not 18 months. This is not a hypothetical case. I can give you lots of examples like this, even within the same institution. It is endemic of all such institutions because conventional SDLC and BPM tools work at a low level of granularity and documentation alone is going to take two or three months.

Let's take the credit card case and drill deeper. Why were we able to do this in such a short span of time? Rage's framework has a series of abstract components. It is like Lego, but these Legos are highly "morphable."

Let me break this particular process into three steps. Step one is to gather information from internal and external sources about the credit card applicant, which could be around 10 sources. It is a big step with conventional technology, because it requires you connect to multiple sources. In step two, you normalize the data. You need to "flatten" the information to get a sense of what someone's profile looks like. You need to apply a series of rules on the data. Most companies won't blindly use the score from [credit-check company] Fair Isaac to assess risk. They'll also use rules of their own.

The third step is to determine the outcome. Rarely does the firm say "yes" or "no." A decision in this context is a continuum. There is "yes" and "no" on the two extremes and then a bunch of pricing decisions in the middle. For example, the system may add 200 basis points to the interest rate on an applicant's credit card depending on the risk.

The fourth step is issuing the cards. This is the easiest step, as the firm is well established. It can issue a million cards an hour. But the first three steps are very hard because they have to be done with legacy systems and have to integrate many external sources.

To accomplish step one, we use an abstract component at Rage called the Connector Factory. There is no programming required. Instead, we type the structure of the information from the first source, we go to the second source and do the same thing, and so on.

There are very important ideas in what we do at Rage and the acronyms might make people put us in the same bucket [as BPO and BPM]. That's our toughest challenge. We create mission-critical technology implementations without programming. In technology terms, we have created a very sophisticated abstract platform using a highly model-driven architecture. But more importantly, going back to SDLC, we leave your business processes as high-level models. From a layman's point of view, we are a live solution that can be modified at any time....

Your flow charts are still there. But if you are driving to work and you get a new idea, you can pull up the flow chart, modify it, save it and it's ready to go. It is live.

Rational Rose, a big product that IBM owns now, takes eight months to finish modeling because you have to go to a very low level of programming constructs. Rage does the modeling at a high level and reduces the logic to data. It's very abstract. BPA is the best acronym we could come up with.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Is what you are doing at Rage informed by one of your earlier companies, eCredit.com, a real-time credit services for e-business?

Srinivasan: This dates back to my doctoral thesis and work as a consultant. [With an interest] in and around time-to-market, I was primarily a finance guy with expert systems and artificial intelligence to support human decision-making. This is just one big evolution for me. I started out by asking: "How do I 'operationalize' flexible decision-making applications or use of technology in the credit decision-making context?"

India Knowledge@Wharton: In the credit-making context, with eCredit?

Srinivasan: That was the original idea, but one thing led to another and in those days I invented whatever I couldn't find. That was in the days before Windows. We didn't have graphic user interfaces. Then I ended up doing a lot of stuff on the Mac because that was the first graphic user interface available....

India Knowledge@Wharton: Why don't the big institutions automate all their business processes? Is there risk involved? It seems there is a cost advantage.

Srinivasan: Our guys were at a recent conference organized by a financial institution for its global supplier base. These people have more than 300 or 400 global vendors providing BPO services. The theme of the conference was automation. People very clearly have moved from BPO to BPM.

Our point at the conference was, "There is automation and then there is automation." There is automation that is going to become legacy the moment you finish. That is not the automation you want. You want automation that is going to be flexible and let you adapt to changes.

Rage is a tiny player. We are the new kid on the block. We are promoting flexible automation....

India Knowledge@Wharton: It sounds as if part of your challenge is to stimulate that market.

Srinivasan: Exactly.

India Knowledge@Wharton: Is there a BPA application for, say, financial regulators or people looking at health care costs or energy markets?

Srinivasan: Every business is a collection of business processes. It doesn't matter what field you are in. Our [job] is to look at every task and think about how to create an abstract component that can help somebody automate the task in an intelligent, flexible manner.

Most work models today are centered on individuals. Companies are interested in leveraging technology in an intelligent manner. Rage has knowledge-based components -- rules, decision trees, computational expressions, natural language processing, etc. The point is not about automation. Rather, from a business point of view. The point is about scalability....

Today, the general work model is centered on an individual. What do we do when we go from 15 to 100 individuals? We write a policy manual. We write procedures. Why can't we just automate it?.... Generally, you automate the stuff that is well understood and not going to change. The moment some aspect of your process has dynamic characteristics, you struggle. This is where conventional automation pigeon holes the business process and says, "We just can't scale if we try to accommodate the dynamic aspects. We are not going to automate it."

....As you grow, you should institutionalize processes so you're not relying on someone to remember what the process is. That way if an individual enters the process only if the individual is required to execute a task. But today, process memory is in the minds of an individual and not institutionalized anywhere. Rage is attempting to provide a framework for institutionalizing business processes.

India Knowledge@Wharton: How did Rage decide to incubate and spin off or nurture other companies? Your firm is very lean. How did it come up with the bandwidth to do the other stuff?

Srinivasan: I wanted to do this within eCredit. The idea was very simple. We felt that our technology was applicable in many areas.

India Knowledge@Wharton: So you built different verticals?

Srinivasan: Precisely. We launched individual subsidiaries because we thought it was a pragmatic way of scaling them when external financing was needed.

India Knowledge@Wharton: How critical is the proprietary nature of what Rage is offering? How important is intellectual property?

Srinivasan: It is important. We probably have a 24-month lead as a first mover. Having said that, we are continually trying to protect our IP rights by applying for patents.

India Knowledge@Wharton: I am curious about your stint with the consultants Bain as an "entrepreneur in residence." How did this happen?

Srinivasan: Bain was the seed investor in eCredit. I have had a long relationship with Bain. When I came out of eCredit, I wanted to do Rage. Bain was, at that time, starting up its venture funds again and offered me an opportunity to come in while I was still formulating Rage to help get the funds going. They already had the venture fund and a very good team ... but I helped with due diligence and investing in technology start-ups.

India Knowledge@Wharton: When did you decide to leave academia and get dirt under your fingernails? Did you wake up one day and say, "OK, that's enough" or had it been building for a while?

Srinivasan: It wasn't a sudden wake-up call. When I look back, it seems very premeditated, even though it wasn't. Fundamentally, I am a creator.

Even in the academic world, I spent a lot of time doing research. That was the outlet for my creativity. Then I got involved in consulting assignments with Fortune 500 firms. In these assignments, I realized that what these guys really need is a software product. I looked at all the "decisioning" variability in these groups and try to figure out how to institutionalize credit policy.

I began doing "skunkworks" projects [or quick projects developed by small groups of people] in [a] spare bedroom. I would show them to somebody and they would find it interesting. I kept iterating. Finally, I had something that could be used. Apple was the primary catalyst. In my sabbatical year, I decided that I was going to continue in my academic role and kill this project or I was going to give up academia and start a company. I had to do one thing or the other.

India Knowledge@Wharton: How have your roots played a part in that story?

Srinivasan: One is problem-solving. My path through my professional career -- and even through school -- was somewhat skewed toward problem-solving. I always had an opportunity to solve difficult problems. I used to work for Union Carbide in India, where there were lots of challenging problems. I was also determined to make things work. When I started eCredit, the credit managers of many companies didn't believe that our vision of creating a knowledge-based application would ever happen.

In India, we had to work with very little. I grew up in a middle-class family. In school, I used to play badminton -- I still do. We didn't have any courts, so we created our own court. We just invented what we didn't have. I'm sure there are hundreds of thousands of millions of stories like this. For me, at a minimum, it created a sense of confidence and determination.

[Then there's] repetition. My kids have gone through school in the U.S. and I see a lot of benefits in their education. They are growing up to be well rounded and wanting to learn. When I was growing up, we were never encouraged to ask "Why?" In fact, I was punished in class if I did. One benefit of that system, however, is that it instills high levels of concentration. All I did was repetition. I remember spending two hours after school every day solving math problems. That's it. That's all we did. We solved math and accounting problems and we were timed. Such repetition sharpens your focus and concentration. We had no alternative.

India Knowledge@Wharton: How have you been able to interact with the Indian diaspora in the Boston community?

Srinivasan: Two things have helped. One is the Indian diaspora and the other is Bain. Both groups have always encouraged me. I have known Bain for almost 20 years, back when it was a very small firm. In the Indian diaspora, I have lots of friends and I am on the board of TiE-Boston [a global non-profit promoting entreprenurship].... I'm very involved with TiE Boston, and we mentor young entrepreneurs [and] I'm involved with the American India Foundation. We support Indian [non-governmental organizations] on a large scale. AIF is more about giving back to India whereas TiE is more local.

Compiled and Adapted from

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm;jsessionid=a830cf09b72442ad81c76a66141d26265f4a?articleid=4435

And brought to you by

Navneet Singh Chauhan.

VidyaGyan: A New Model for Improving Rural Education?

 

Published: December 17, 2009 in India Knowledge@Wharton

On July 10, 2009, Bishwajit Banerjee stood outside the new VidyaGyan school in Bulandshahr in Uttar Pradesh (UP), some 60 kilometers from New Delhi. "I was extremely nervous," he recalls. Shain Khan, who also stood outside the school on that day, remembers feeling the same emotion. "I cried. I missed my mother. I decided to run away."

Both had reason to be anxious. Forty-four-year-old principal Banerjee and 11-year-old student Khan were taking part in a new experiment in education.

"VidyaGyan is a radical concept that aims to ... transform meritorious rural children from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, providing them free, world-class education, allowing them to transcend the disadvantages they face," says T.S.R. Subramanian, who is spearheading the project. A former cabinet secretary to the Union Government and chief secretary in UP, Subramanian says VidyaGyan is an idea whose time has come. "There are [Mahendra Singh] Dhonis everywhere," he says. (Dhoni is India's cricket captain; he comes from the backwater state Jharkhand.) "Children in rural areas have great potential; they will flower if given the chance."

VidyaGyan is an initiative of the Shiv Nadar Foundation -- set up by Shiv Nadar, founder of the U.S.$5 billion technology group HCL. The first school has just opened, taking in 200 students from the fifth grade who scored the highest on the UP state board examinations. From the sixth grade onwards, they will study at VidyaGyan, a residential institute where all expenses are paid. The students are from economically challenged backgrounds, and VidyaGyan aims to mold them into leaders.

"The quality of primary and secondary education in this country is abysmal," Subramanian says. "We have a few world-class institutes -- the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and the Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs), for instance -- in higher education. But there is no equivalent in the primary education space, except for a few private schools in urban areas."

Subramanian notes that community involvement in education is central to the project's mission. "Fist, education is too important to be left to the government. It must be a community effort. And corporates must be involved in this as part of the community. Second, we must bridge the urban-rural divide. We are unfortunately developing an urban society that is rich and a rural society that is poor. Third, this is a public-private program. We think this is the way to make progress in this area." Subramanian praises the UP government's role in this initiative: Among other things, it is responsible for the selection of the children.

Bridging the Divide

The project has been percolating for quite some time. "When I retired from the government eight years ago, I started the Indian Education Foundation to provide technology for rural schools," he says. "But we couldn't raise resources. There was a recession and we failed to find funds, even in the U.S. I was on the board of HCL. We were talking about a university -- which is [opening] up in June-July next year in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon -- and the VidyaGyan proposal came up naturally."

The Shiv Nadar Foundation's mission is to create a more equitable, meritocracy-based society and empower individuals to bridge the socio-economic divide. The foundation aims to achieve this primarily by setting up outstanding educational institutions that provide meritorious students from all walks of life the opportunity to receive a world-class education. VidyaGyan is part of a growing number of the foundation's projects, including the SSN College of Engineering, the SSN School of Management & Computer Applications and the SSN School of Advanced Software Engineering. ("SSN" stands for Shiv Nadar's late father Shri Sivasubramaniya Nadar.) Adding to this are initiatives like the VamaSundari Trust, which has already distributed US$6 million in scholarships.

"We have always believed in building institutions of excellence ... to last," says Nadar. "The school will not only provide these very deserving kids a global education; it will also build leadership and character. These children have risen above exceptionally challenging circumstances to top their districts. Twenty years hence, these kids will not just fill a job vacancy. They will go out and change the world."

"VidyaGyan [is] personally a very challenging and exciting project for me," says Roshni Nadar, Nadar's daughter who is a trustee of the Shiv Nadar Foundation and executive director and CEO of HCL. "The first school is off the ground and the next -- possibly at Varanasi -- will come up soon. After that, there is the Shiv Nadar University, which will be modeled after top-notch U.S. universities.... [VidyaGyan] is financed entirely by the Shiv Nadar Foundation, which has set aside substantial funds needed for a project of such quality and impact."

As for the funding required, Subramanian says, "The land cost US$3 million," he says. "The infrastructure costs another US$7 million." Not all the money has been spent as some facilities have yet to be built. "Our running costs are US$1,600 per child per year. It will be less -- US$1,200 to US$1,400 -- when we achieve economies of scale." This is just the beginning, he adds. "In two years, we will have four or five schools." The final plan is for a network of more than 50 schools.

Raising Eyebrows

The infrastructure costs have been raising some eyebrows in a country where rural schools often lack a blackboard and even a roof. But VidyaGyan is not cutting corners. The first school at Bulandshahr is spread over 20 acres -- 14 for the school itself and six for housing. The total facility area is 250,000 square feet. There will be 30 classrooms (10 are operational now), a hostel for 700 students, a language lab ("To teach our children to communicate in English is a major challenge," says principal Banerjee), a computer lab, a math lab, a library, an amphitheatre seating 800, an auditorium, an athletic track, a football field, a skating rink and indoor sports facilities. An eight-acre sports complex will be built next to the school campus. This will include a cricket ground and other outdoor sports facilities. "All this may be commonplace in urban schools," says Banerjee. "But for most of our students, this is very new."

Banerjee offers a report on students' progress so far. "Shain was not the only one with problems," he says. "She adjusted and is happy now. [One] boy from Badauin district just could not settle down and his parents took him back home. After a few days, he came back on his own... In the first month, we often got calls from anxious parents. Some of them visited the school. Now, all that has stopped. They have seen our facilities and what we provide."

Banerjee explains that the children -- 126 boys and 74 girls -- are housed in separate hostels with round-the-clock security. "We had asked the children to come with only two sets of clothes and the school is taking care of all their other needs -- books, stationery, uniforms, sports outfits, other clothes and items of daily use," he says.

But what will happen during the holidays when they return home? Will there be adjustment problems? "We don't know," Subramanian says. "But we realize the problem...."

There is another adjustment issue, though it will not come up for some time. What will happen when the students finish and start college? Higher education is expensive, and having a child at VidyaGyan is not going to change the economic status of his or her family. Subramanian says they will continue to mentor the children through their first year in college. And money problems are easier to solve than the tougher task of providing education, he adds.

VidyaGyan may have ambitious roll-out plans, but it has no intentions of spreading beyond UP. "We looked at UP and Tamil Nadu (TN)," says Subramanian. "Both [Nadar and I] were born in TN. But the need in UP was greater. At the moment, we are only in UP. We will take stock later; we don't want to bite off too much."

According to executive coach Gopal Shrikanth, the strategy makes sense. "VidyaGyan's decision to focus all their energies on transforming a single backward state such as UP, rather than spreading themselves thin across the country, is unique. This model should hopefully be an inspiration to other companies to 'adopt' other backward states."

'Islands of Excellence'

How has the establishment and the academic world responded to VidyaGyan? "I think it is a very good idea," says Dipankar Gupta, a recently retired professor from the School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. "In fact, I had a thought along these lines but could not pursue it. If these schools are able to produce outstanding students who can get to Wharton, IIT, LSE [London School of Economics], IAS [Indian Administrative Services] and so on, that would be fantastic. In other words, the training should be world class, from science and language to deportment and confidence building."

According to Gupta, the impact would be cumulative. "If Nadar is able to produce top-class students from poor homes then, over a period of time, they will form a critical mass. This can be used to pressure the state to deliver quality education. I think the best thing that NGOs and philanthropists can do is to shame the state into delivering and not become alternate nodes of power and influence."

Is there a danger that a school like VidyaGyan could become elitist, producing misfits in their social milieu? "By and large, this is a noble cause that is for the good of Indian society," says Shrikanth. "However, similar social reengineering initiatives have mostly resulted only in the immediate families of such students benefiting, socially and economically. Beyond acting as an inspiration to their communities, the majority of such beneficiaries do not seem to devote their careers to working in or for their communities. Some beneficiaries do, however, go on to bestow endowments to community schools and hospitals, at a later stage in their lives."

That, itself, could be an adequate return, says Gupta. "The advantage of an elite brigade of professionals from poor homes is a very strong and persuasive demonstration of humanity and the democratic spirit. Meritocracy is the bedrock of true democracy. The school must produce children better than our best schools. They should know better math and English; they should be great swimmers and orators; they should have confidence oozing out of their pores. This will give those who are elitist by birth a kick in their pants."

In response to concerns over elitism, Subramanian asks: "Are the IITs and IIMs elitist?"

Dileep Ranjekar, chief executive officer of the Azim Premji Foundation, wonders whether VidyaGyan is really a solution. "Research tells us that only a negligible percentage of [these initiatives] deliver education that is envisaged by the National Policy for Education. A private school does not necessarily symbolize higher quality of education for children unless it is managed and run on certain accepted principles." Moreover, he notes, even if the school is good, the model may not be replicable "because of the high cost of establishing such facilities and the management bandwidth involved. These schools continue to remain as 'islands of excellence' -- assuming they are managed well -- rather than proving to be role models for the larger universe of schools.

"Our experience indicates that the best practices in one school are not transferred to other schools," Ranjekar adds. "In addition to such efforts, we need all influential people to exert pressure on the government to deliver high-quality education to all children in the country. Otherwise such schools can only add to the already existing inequity."

S. Ramesh Kumar, professor of marketing at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, feels that credit must be given where it is due. "At a time when ... there is a strong emphasis on corporate social responsibility, it is nice to see a reputed organization heralding a laudable social objective In India. Given the commitment reflected in the very concept, such an attempt will work and perhaps inspire other firms as well. With technology making rapid strides, such initiatives will certainly create a level playing field in a country where around 50% of the population is below 25 years of age."

The success of the concept will depend on the kind of education imparted at VidyaGyan. "A sense of idealism that they will cherish throughout their lives has to be deeply rooted in these students during their tenure at the school," says Shrikanth.

"Skeptics are bound to raise a number of questions," he adds. "Are the plans for 70-plus schools realistic [in] the current economic climate? Would it have been more prudent to plan for just one central school, given the typical academic challenges of recruiting and retaining qualified faculty? Is the planned infrastructure a sub-optimal utilization of limited resources? Is this model sustainable, given that the source of funding will depend on a single company year after year?"

While remaining confident, Subramanian is humble about the final deliverables. "We are not saying that we are an example," he says. "But we propose to do our bit to show the way."

Compiled and Adapted from

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm;jsessionid=a830cf09b72442ad81c76a66141d26265f4a?articleid=4438

And brought to you by

Navneet Singh Chauhan.

Media: The way ahead..

'Bigg' Prospects: Media Companies Tune In to India's Growing Entertainment Sector

Two hours away from busy Mumbai lies the sedentary Aamby Valley resort. This is where Viacom18, a joint venture between Viacom of the U.S. and India's Network18, has rigged up its sets for Bigg Boss (the licensed Indian version of the Big Brother franchise, originally launched in the Netherlands). The reality show is proving to be yet another milestone for Colors, the Hindi-language general entertainment channel (GEC) launched by Viacom18 last year. Through its unconventional programming choices, Colors has shaken deeply entrenched players in the CEG television category. For four successive weeks -- 41, 42, 43 and 44 (the numbering starts from the first week of the calendar year) -- the GEC has increased the gap between itself and its competitors -- Rupert Murdoch-owned Star Plus and Subhash Chandra's Zee TV.

"Our research told us that there was a fair amount of fatigue in the kind of shows that were running on GECs when we launched, and that viewers wanted something different and more relatable," says Rajesh Kamat, CEO of Colors. "This formed the basis of our content strategy. We opted for meaningful entertainment versus pure entertainment. We were disruptive in our scheduling to break existing viewer habits -- [showing] non-fiction during weekday prime time. And by paying more money to the distributors, we got ourselves placed right next to the most-viewed channel in the premium band in each market to ensure maximum walkthroughs and sampling."

Actor Amitabh Bachchan was in many ways responsible for delivering India's reality programming breakthrough for Star Plus eight years ago when he hostedKaun Banega Crorepati (the Indian version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire). Now, Bachchan is back on the small screen as the host of Bigg Boss. Bachchan has been followed to the small screen by well-known Indian film actors such as Shahrukh Khan, Salman Khan and Akshay Kumar.

The hard-nosed reality format seems to be working across the GEC vector. While some programs are licensed shows indigenized for Indian audiences, others are pure-play original formats. "Entertainment doesn't only need to be diverting or superficial, or dumbed down to pander to the lowest common denominator," says Siddhartha Basu, promoter of production company Synergy Adlabs, who is responsible for many of India's hit reality shows including the hugely successful Kaun Banega Crorepati. "There should be a place for social realism in our general entertainment space, because that can genuinely connect with people's lives, their heads and hearts to a much greater extent. The ratings of both Aap ki Kachehri [a dispute-resolution program anchored by social activist and famous retired police officer Kiran Bedi] and Sach ka Saamna[Moment of Truth, which recently created a huge controversy in India for its risque content] demonstrate there's enough of an audience for such shows if they're done right."

The playing field has become crowded over the past couple of years, however, with the arrival of new challengers to Star Plus, which had dominated the Indian GEC space for close to eight years. In 2008, Viacom with Network18 launched Colors, Turner Broadcasting joined Indian production company Miditech to launch the Real channel, and NBC Universal joined NDTV to launch NDTV Imagine. Already, there has been some churn: Turner International, which inked a 50:50 joint venture with Alva Brothers Entertainment, owners of Miditech, wants to leave the JV. No new programming has been on air since July, and Real has stated that it wants to downsize operations. Similarly, NBC Universal has exited from NDTV Networks where it held 26%. In 2007, INX Media launched 9x, which was funded with the help of private equity players like Temasek and New Silk Route, but 9x ultimately folded due to ballooning costs and management issues.

That leaves Viacom, which remains invested in a healthy and viable business in India. Time Warner is reportedly negotiating with NDTV to pick up a majority stake in NDTV Imagine, though nothing has been announced yet. Meanwhile, Star and Sony Pictures Television have been in the India market for years: Star remains in constant battling distance with new entrant Colors, while Sony is attempting a comeback with new programming.

Also remaining steadfast is Subhash Chandra's Zee TV: For week 43, it displaced Star Plus from the number-two position with gross rating points (GRP) of 271 (compared to Star Plus's 229). Week 44 saw it slip back again, falling behind Star Plus, but only by a slim margin of nine points. One of Zee TV's strategies to revive its fortunes is launching new programs. More importantly, it has widened the ambit of its prime band, offering an array of shows from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. (instead of 8 p.m. to 11 p.m.). In the first quarter of the new financial year (April to March 2009-10), Zee TV's GRP stood at 234, just marginally behind Colors' 258 and Star Plus's 255; in the same April-June period, it has emerged as the joint leader along with Colors in prime-time programming.

Foreign Players

Slowly, American studios and networks are grabbing larger swathes of Indian media and entertainment space. While it is still difficult to get a large toehold in the news business -- both print and television -- due to foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions and caps, it has been relatively smooth sailing for Western players to establish a solid presence in the entertainment space. It has taken the Murdoch-owned Star Group many years to find traction in India -- partly the result of the Indian market dynamics and the fact that it had some misses along the way. Now, Murdoch-Star affiliate Fox-Star Studios is betting big on the Indian market as well. It has established what it believes is a one-stop shop for Bollywood producers and wants to put the building blocks in place to develop a viable and sustainable business, which might not necessarily be about scale and size.

"At the end of the day, India -- like China -- represents a business opportunity which needs to be captured on the ground," says Vijay Singh, CEO of Fox-Star. "We are trying to unlock these opportunities in India. News Corp. has been here forever, so it was natural for us to get here as well, being a part of the Group. While we distribute all the Hollywood films from Fox and marketedSlumdog Millionaire in India as a Bollywood film and succeeded with that, we also recently released our first production, Quick Gun Murugun." Fox-Star's next big bet is the Karan Johar-directed film My Name is Khan, which stars Shahrukh Khan and Kajol. It will be released in the U.S. by Searchlight and will have a mix of Hindi and English. Singh says he is working on four different projects as well -- "a mix of small- to medium-sized films."

Walt Disney has had a checkered history in India. Its first attempts to enter the market were a failure, resulting in a legal battle with Lalit Modi's Modi Enterprises. Eventually, it launched the Disney Channel and Toon Disney. Recently, it took a big leap of faith in the Indian market by buying Hungama TV from Ronnie Screwvala for US$30.5 million and then acquiring 59% in UTV Software Communications with an investment of US$170 million, allowing it access to one of the big production studios in Hindi cinema with hit films likeJodhaa Akbar and Race, and acclaimed, smaller budget films like A Wednesday.

One missing player is Bertlesmann AG, the third-largest entertainment conglomerate after Time Warner and Walt Disney. But all other key media companies -- from News Corp. to Time Warner, Walt Disney, Viacom, Sony Pictures Television, Liberty Media and Bloomberg, which recently entered into a content partnership with UTV -- have presence in the Indian market. Amit Khanna, chairman of the vertically integrated Reliance Big Entertainment, which recently formalized a 50:50 joint venture with Steven Spielberg's Dreamworks, notes that while many of these players have been in India for some time, "they are reinforcing their presence.... I think the realization that India is a growing market where everything has a low [cost] base has finally dawned on American studios and broadcasters. Entertainment spend is very low while penetration of DTH [direct-to-home satellite service], cable and other forms of access have a huge upside. This is the potential that is reinforcing the India story."

India vs. China

One driver of foreign interest is that India's media and entertainment industry is expected to grow to US$21 billion by 2014. Manjit Singh, CEO of Multi Screen Media (MSM), a joint venture between Sony Pictures Television and a group of Indian investors, notes that India "is an attractive market and one needs to have a sizeable presence in it -- more so because it is still under-explored. Star and Sony were ... the first to set up base here realizing that it was a market which had enormous upside."

Others note that while media companies recognized similar potential in China's entertainment sector, they have retreated from that market and have begun to focus instead on India. A recent report on the Indian broadcast industry inThe New York Times notes that "after many years of fervent lobbying and deal-making in China, American media companies have little to show for their efforts there and are increasingly shifting their attention instead to India. Media executives still believe that Chinese audiences are receptive to Western culture -- SpongeBob SquarePants is a big hit in China -- but many companies have been pulling back out of frustration over censorship, piracy, strict restrictions on foreign investment and the glacial pace of its bureaucracy."

According to Mohammad Mian, dean of the faculty of education studies at Jamia Millia Islamia University in New Delhi, there are other factors at play as well. "It is partially due to the disillusionment with China, but also due to the growing importance of India in the global scenario. Remember that we are an English-speaking nation. In my experience as an educator, the demand for English language [use] is only going up in India. We have a natural advantage in this regard. In fact, English should be made compulsory in India. When China realized that communicating in English was the biggest barrier to conducting trade and commerce, they, too, started making attempts to come up to speed, but we have a 250-year legacy advantage over them. That is why American broadcasters and studios find it easier to do business here."

In March, the Motion Picture Association of America opened an office in India for the first time, in Mumbai. A little over four years ago, Dan Glickman became the head of the association, and he has visited China several times. "The feeling was that there were greater opportunities then [in China] than there are now," he says. According to MSM's Singh, India is an extremely fertile market and its viewers are getting more discerning, showing deeper and wider segmentation. His channel is now focusing on small towns and segments of the strata in the metros as a way to capture greater market share.

Some companies are succeeding, while others are moths to the flame. Kamat notes that Viacom18 believed in Colors and resisted the temptation to short sell for a volume commitment in the initial months. Initially, the company did short-term deals until the brand achieved its potential. This helped it to get advertising rates commensurate to the GEC's performance. Now, less than a year and half after launch, Colors is doing a run rate of US$10 million per month, making it the fastest-growing channel. While Kamat may have succeeded on the back of big ticket reality shows -- Khatron Ke Khiladi (Fear Factor), India's Got Talent (India's version of Britain's Got Talent) and Bigg Boss (Big Brother) -- he is quick to clarify that India remains a soap opera-driven market. "Reality TV serves a dual objective of ratings and buzz for the channel. However, India is still a soap-driven market and will continue to be. The contribution of Reality to the programming basket is now up to about 20%, from 8% to 10% earlier. Soaps continue to be a staple diet and the Reality shows are the spicier offerings."

Compiled and Adapted from

 http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm;jsessionid=a830cf09b72442ad81c76a66141d26265f4a?articleid=4436

Friday 13 November 2009

World’s Best MBA College’s (TOP 100): surveyed by Economist.com

 

1
IESE Business School - University of Navarra
Spain

2
IMD - International Institute for Management Development
Switzerland

3
California at Berkeley, University of - Haas School of Business
United States

4
Chicago, University of - Booth School of Business
United States

5
Harvard Business School
United States

6
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business
United States

7
Stanford Graduate School of Business
United States

8
London Business School
Britain

9
Pennsylvania, University of - Wharton School
United States

10
Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School
Belgium

11
Cambridge, University of - Judge Business School
Britain

12
York University - Schulich School of Business
Canada

13
New York University - Leonard N Stern School of Business
United States

14
HEC School of Management, Paris
France

15
Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management
United States

16
IE Business School
Spain

17
Melbourne Business School - University of Melbourne
Australia

18
Cranfield School of Management
Britain

19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology - MIT Sloan School of Management
United States

20
Columbia Business School
United States

21
Henley Business School
Britain

22
Warwick Business School
Britain

23
INSEAD
France / Singapore

24
Virginia, University of - Darden Graduate School of Business Administration
United States

25
Michigan, University of - Stephen M. Ross School of Business
United States

26
Mannheim Business School
Germany

27
Yale School of Management
United States

28
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
United States

29
ESADE Business School
Spain

30
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology - School of Business and Management
Hong Kong

31
Washington, University of--Foster School of Business
United States

32
Cornell University - Johnson Graduate School of Management
United States

33
Carnegie Mellon University - The Tepper School of Business
United States

34
Notre Dame, University of - Mendoza College of Business
United States

35
Ashridge
Britain

36
Southern California, University of - Marshall School of Business
United States

37
University College Dublin - Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business
Ireland

38
Hong Kong, University of - Faculty of Business and Economics
Hong Kong

39
North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of - Kenan-Flagler Business School
United States

40
Boston University
United States

41
Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University
Netherlands

42
International University of Monaco
Monaco

43
Rice University - Jesse H Jones Graduate School of Management
United States

44
Hult International Business School
United States

45
Ohio State University - Fisher College of Business
United States

46
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business
United States

47
Oxford, University of - Saïd Business School
Britain

48
Georgetown University - Robert Emmet McDonough School of Business
United States

49
Texas at Austin, University of - McCombs School of Business
United States

50
UCLA Anderson School of Management
United States

51
Maryland, University of - Robert H Smith School of Business
United States

52
Emory University - Goizueta Business School
United States

53
Durham Business School
Britain

54
Wisconsin School of Business
United States

55
Macquarie Graduate School of Management
Australia

56
California at Davis, University of
United States

57
Manchester Business School
Britain

58
Pennsylvania State University - Smeal College of Business
United States

59
Monash University
Australia

60
EMLYON
France

61
Iowa, University of - Henry B Tippie School of Management
United States

62
Minnesota, University of - Carlson School of Management
United States

63
University of Edinburgh Business School
Britain

64
Vanderbilt University - Owen Graduate School of Management
United States

65
Washington University in St Louis - Olin Business School
United States

66
Bath, University of - School of Management
Britain

67
Aston Business School
Britain

68
Imperial College Business School
Britain

69
Audencia Nantes School of Management
France

70
Pittsburgh, University of - Joseph M Katz Graduate School of Business
United States

71
Nanyang Business School - Nanyang Technological University
Singapore

72
Bocconi University - SDA Bocconi School of Management
Italy

73
South Carolina, University of - Moore School of Business
United States

74
EDHEC Business School
France

75
McGill University – Desautels Faculty of Management
Canada

76
City University - Cass Business School
Britain

77
Wake Forest University - Babcock Graduate School of Management
United States

78
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong

79
Lancaster University Management School
Britain

80
Brandeis International Business School
United States

81
Grenoble Graduate School of Business
France

82
British Columbia, University of - Sauder School of Business
Canada

83
Birmingham, University of - Birmingham Business School
Britain

84
Thunderbird School of Global Management
United States

85
International University of Japan - Graduate School of International Management
Japan

86
Newcastle University Business School
Britain

87
Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of - College of Business
United States

88
Southern Methodist University - Cox School of Business
United States

89
National University of Singapore - The NUS Business School
Singapore

90
EADA
Spain

91
Strathclyde, University of - Business School
Britain

92
Georgia, University of - Terry College of Business
United States

93
Curtin University Graduate School of Business
Australia

94
TiasNimbas Business School
Netherlands

95
China Europe International Business School (CEIBS)
China

96
Leeds University Business School
Britain

97
EGADE-Tecnologico de Monterrey
Mexico

98
Nottingham University Business School
Britain

99
Indian Institute of Management - Ahmedabad
India

100
Florida, University of - Hough Graduate School of Business
United States

n/a
Case Western Reserve University - Weatherhead School of Management
United States

n/a
Wits Business School - University of the Witwatersand
South Africa

n/a
Bradford School of Management
Britain

n/a
HEC Montréal
Canada

n/a
Nyenrode Business Universiteit
Netherlands

n/a
Southampton, University of - School of Management
Britain

n/a
American University - Kogod School of Business
United States

n/a
Arizona, University of - Eller College of Management
United States

n/a
ENPC School of International Management
France

n/a
Asian Institute of Management

Philippines

The World in 2010: Wanted: green engineers

 

The world needs more of them, notes Oliver Morton

 

Isambard's kingdom to come

Regardless of the outcome of the Copenhagen conference in December 2009, one of the most pressing anti-climate-change needs will be the ability to get things done in 2010 and beyond. The commitments already made by some large economies require an extremely large capacity to get new energy systems in place quickly. That includes making sure that there are the people around to design and build them.

The infrastructure needed to make a large dent in the world’s emissions is daunting. What is unusual is not the scale of investment, but that much of it has to be spent on new capabilities. With the use of coal worldwide expected to double by 2030, for example, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will be crucial. The amount of pipelining, geological surveying and chemical engineering needed for this is not unprecedented compared with what already exists in the oil, gas and mining industries. But it is vastly larger than today’s CCS capacity, and the people needed cannot just be borrowed from the current fossil-fuel industry.

The nuclear industry is also bedevilled by labour-force issues, at all skill levels. For the past few decades very few Western countries have been producing nuclear engineers; if the nuclear industry is to expand again, over the next decade it will need thousands of engineers who are at present nowhere to be found. And if the supply of expert engineers is tight for builders and operators, it will be tight for regulators, too—regulators who will be sorely needed if a new generation of nuclear-power plants is to enjoy, and deserve, public confidence.

 

Renewables do not face these issues in quite so pressing a form; the solar and wind industries reap the benefits of the production line in ways that nuclear and carbon-capture technologies, with their large installations, do not. This is one of the reasons that governments like renewables: they provide jobs. Retrofitting homes for greater energy efficiency also offers this advantage on a large scale (which makes one wonder why it is not a higher priority). Even so the renewables sector will also be competing for designers and engineers.

To a large extent this is a market problem that markets can solve; if the demand is created, companies will find ways to get the work done. But there are some specific things that governments can do to help. One is to fund research with a strong emphasis on energy engineering and science. New breakthroughs, however welcome, are not the point here; though new technologies will be a boon in the 2030s and 2040s, the realities of large-scale change mean that, for the moment, energy transformation is a come-as-you-are party. But breakthroughs are not the only thing research produces. Nuclear engineers are scarce in part because there has been little ongoing research to captivate students.

 

Another smart policy will be to re-examine the extent to which governments subsidise high-tech jobs in other industries, notably defence, tying up talent. There are a lot of opportunities in green technology for laid-off missile designers. A third idea, for those who can afford it, is to reap the benefits of the educational successes of other countries by importing people from places where many aspire to become, and qualify as, engineers.

The people needed cannot just be borrowed from the fossil-fuel industry

Who wants to be an engineer?

And it would be nice to find ways to spread that aspiration more widely. In a number of countries (Britain is an example) engineering does not carry much cultural cachet. A pride in the engineered past—remember Isambard Brunel—is accompanied by apathy towards the engineering of the present. It is neither fruitful nor desirable for governments to meddle in broad cultural attitudes. But leaders of the environmental movement, and politicians who aspire to such leadership, might do well to encourage the young to apply their idealism to their choice of career path.

It’s all very well to recycle, pester your parents about fuel efficiency and aspire to holidays that need no flights. But the best thing a bright young person can do to help rid civilisation of fossil fuels is get an education in engineering.

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn: 'Now Is the Time for the Electric Car'

 

The electric car is real. It's here. And before long -- when curbside charging stations become as ubiquitous as parking meters -- it won't seem all that complicated, either.

So says a man who has thrown his corporate reputation into the post-gasoline car: Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan. In a wide-ranging Wharton Leadership Lecture that touched on everything from managing a multicultural conglomerate to pushing for targeted government regulation, Ghosn was at his most optimistic when discussing a future where zero-emissions vehicles are embraced -- not out of altruism towards Mother Earth or hostility towards the oil-rich Middle East, but because they are good business.

"The electric car appeared at the beginning of the century, then disappeared, appeared in the 1950s, then disappeared, appeared in the 1970s, then disappeared," Ghosn said. "But a lot of things have changed.... We are putting our chips and we are putting our investment and we are putting our efforts behind this belief that now is the time."

Why now? Ghosn says one critical element was technological progress. "The battery of today is capable of doing things that the battery of 10 years ago was not capable of," he said. Where the task of supplying enough energy for a car's wildly varying power needs was once impractical, it's available today at reasonable prices.

The second element is the price of oil. Noting that the cost of a barrel is $68 in the middle of a recession, Ghosn asked his audience whether anyone thought the price would go down. No hands went up. With the U.S., China, Brazil, Indonesia, Eastern Europe and Western Europe all growing, "imagine what the price of oil [will be] if we don't change the consumption," he said.

Also affecting costs, he predicted, would be a third factor: Regulations. During his lecture, he asked for another show of hands from people who believed environmental restrictions would become less stringent. Again, no hands went up. "The car industry is 14% of CO2 emissions," he said. "In the eyes of the public, the car industry is responsible for 50%. We have no choice."

The coming boom in car ownership in emerging economies will likely increase this perception. Ghosn predicts a spike from 700 million cars today to some 1.5 billion globally: "If you're going to let developing countries have as many cars as they want -- and they're going to have as many cars as they want one way or another -- there is no absolutely alternative but to go for zero emissions. And the only zero-emissions vehicle available today is electric.... So we decided to go for it. We decided not to wait for the next battery and the next car in five years. We decided now is the time."

Plugging In

Ghosn went into significant detail in describing how his firm can make electric cars a practical reality -- and a consumer favorite. "Driving an electric car is pure pleasure," he said. "I'm sure when the car is on the market in the U.S. and people start to drive it, it will totally change the image of an electric car." Starting next year, Nissan and Renault plan to offer a wide range of such vehicles, not just a single marquee product marketed to show off a driver's green inclinations. "We want the car to be affordable, which means, if you want to buy an electric car, it has to cost the same" as regular cars.

The logistics, on the other hand, will require a certain degree of investment from individuals, businesses and perhaps governments. Ghosn said car buyers with garages at home should be able to upgrade their electric outlets to facilitate an electric car's plug for around $500. In big cities, he predicted, electric companies will pay about $1,000 for devices resembling parking meters that can be arrayed along curbs to charge the vehicles. He predicted that price would fall as companies began mass-ordering the devices, and said firms would quickly recoup their expenses as customers pay to charge their batteries.

Both of those options, though, require a car to be charged overnight, like a mobile phone, for a charge that gets a car fewer miles than a tank of gas. Drivers in a hurry will have to go to a quick-charge station, which can fill up 80% of a battery in 30 minutes. The equipment isn't cheap: A quick-charge device, Ghosn said, costs $30,000 -- an investment that might make sense once there is a critical mass of electric-car drivers already on the road, but something that could seem expensive for service station owners in a market where electric cars remain rare. He called for governments to step in and spur the market via regulation. One idea: Make quick-charge facilities mandatory for anyone operating a gas station starting in 2012.

Ghosn indicated that he foresees epic battles over his ideas, commensurate with the major economic interests at play. "It's not possible unless government supports you. It's not because the technology is more expensive. It's because you can't compete against 68 million cars being produced in the whole system.... That's why we need support from the government, in order to make the ramp-up from 500,000 to one million cars. And then the system works by itself. Governments are all lined up. They are all agreeing to say, 'Okay, I want an electric car in my country. I'm going to put in the incentives that are necessary. I'm going to put in the infrastructure that is necessary, because we need to get out of dependence on oil. We need to get out from CO2 and global warming. And we need to get out from the risk of oil going to $150 and $200 a barrel.'"

Comic Book Hero

Ghosn's career makes him the ideal person to translate once-fantastic ideas into practical nitty-gritty. Born in Brazil, he moved to his parents' native Lebanon at age six. Educated there and in France, he went to work for Michelin and became chief operating officer of its South American division at age 30. By 34, he was running the firm's North American operations, where he led a merger with Uniroyal. He moved to Renault in 1996 in time for the French automaker's takeover of Nissan. In 2001, he became the first non-Japanese to run the firm, which was deeply in debt and had lost nearly $6 million the previous year. In 2002, it turned a profit. Ghosn's turnaround skills made him a celebrity in Japan, where his story was featured in a comic book.

Ghosn said he never planned a career as a turnaround specialist. Rather, he said, he chose the transportation industry because "I liked cars, I liked products and I liked to work with people." Were he in a position to hire someone to fix a distressed firm, he would focus on three more specific qualities: Someone who had previous experience with tough business challenges, someone who was rigorously factual and willing to question assumptions by using data, and someone who could connect with other people to enlist their help with difficult parts of the recovery effort, such as layoffs.

Ghosn described his firm's multinational character as a plus: In addition to its well-known French and Japanese components, it also owns or partners with automakers in Korea, Romania and Russia. "We are a hybrid of different cultures -- one French, one Japanese, one Russian. Every company is autonomous, but we develop synergies together.... We are a unique combination of different cultures, and it works. It's complicated, it goes against all the advice, but it works." In 2008, the company had more than $100 billion in global revenues.

Ghosn, 55, says a diverse firm like Renault Nissan, with 300,000 employees around the world and head offices in Paris and Tokyo, is a fairly good reflection of a business world where management culture has become as diverse as labor and market locations. "Six or seven years ago, the BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India and China] countries were a new frontier," he said. "Now they are at the heart of the system.... 'Multicultural' used to be American leaders, Japanese leaders and West European leaders. Not anymore." The current downturn, which has seen China, India and Brazil remain comparatively resilient, will only serve to strengthen this trend.

Ghosn sees major new possibilities for those countries, and other emerging economies, in his industry. His advice to nations dreaming of an auto sector: "You have to bring something to the table." Japan, he noted, started by introducing cheap cars that were bedeviled by quality problems. Once the quality problems were fixed, Japanese firms ruled the market. Korean automakers followed the same model, occupying the low-cost niche Japan had vacated, and then moving up as quality soared. He sees Chinese firms following suit. India's auto industry, on the other hand, appears not to be copying the pattern, focusing instead on "frugal engineering -- a habit that's lost elsewhere" -- for cars like Tata's low-budget Nano. The vehicle might come to dominate parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America, although Ghosn doubts it would clear Western safety hurdles.

The increasingly multinational nature of automakers and auto buyers stands in contrast to a strain of nationalist dialogue that has been especially prevalent as the U.S. ponders its reliance on gasoline.

In the case of the automobile industry's move away from oil, one factor that is frequently cited by American politicians is not high on Ghosn's list of motivations: national security. An audience member asked whether a transition to batteries would really help America's push for energy independence, since many battery ingredients come from China, a country that presents its own set of foreign-policy challenges for Washington. But Ghosn said the point wasn't to cut potentially competing governments out of the action: Instead, it was to liberate the market from the environmental risk and price uncertainty that are specific to oil.

In addition, he said, the oil and battery industries are both more diverse than the national security rhetoric would have people believe. Slash transportation's dependence on oil by 50% and there will still be a large market in heating, industrial products and countless other regions. And while the least expensive batteries and several key raw materials do come from China, the most sophisticated batteries are made in Japan and Korea.

The very unpredictability of his own path -- like the technological change his industry is now experiencing -- offers a fairly good lesson about managing a career, Ghosn said.

"A career, no matter what, you can't predict, you can't plan. You're going to be offered much more opportunity than you ever think could happen. The only thing to make sure of is that your mindset is open enough so that when the opportunity comes, even though it's completely bizarre or completely strange or in a place in the world that you never thought you would be, you're ready to take it," he said. "If somebody had told me six months ago that ... I would be sitting in [the Tokyo neighborhood of] Ginza managing one of the largest car manufacturers in Japan, I'd have said [he was] crazy. Not going to happen. If you don't maintain your open mindset, if you say, 'This is my plan and everything else is a distraction,' you're not going to go anywhere."

Tuesday 10 November 2009

How consumers behave - TV, Net gain from slowdown

Small was big and less was more during slowdown

Starcom MediaVest Group, the brand communications arm of Paris-based Publicis Groupe, which is one of the world s top marketing services company, recently released a study on how the recent economic downturn impacted consumers across Asia and the lessons to be learnt from consumer behaviour during challenging times.

The study, which measured consumers brand behaviour and media consump- tion habits, was supported by the group s real-time consumer intent behaviour tracking tool, IntenTrack. IntenTrack samples around 250 consumers across 35 product categories on a weekly basis and tracks consumers intent to research, purchase or recommend 400 brands in 32 countries.
Joanna von Felkerzam, head insights and captivation, at Starcom MediaVest Group, Asia, and also one of the authors of the study, was in Mumbai recently. She spoke with FE s Pritha Mitra Dasgupta about various aspects of the report. Edited excerpts:

Why was the research done and how is it going to benefit Starcom MediVest Group and its clients?

The slowdown had a big impact on countries outside Asia. It, however, impacted Asian consumers as well to a good extent. We wanted to know how the Asian consumers were faring at a time when the world was battling with the slowdown and to better understand their realities, behaviour and attitude. This in turn helps us anticipate and prepare ourselves as we move through the timeline of the slowdown to recovery. Our clients benefited from having a cross-market understanding of consumer realities and the underlying change in mindset and needs that have a direct impact on brand purchase decision-making.

Tell us about some of your key findings about the Indian market.

We saw that more time spent at home watching TV or surfing the internet on account of postponed or cancelled holidays and time spent viewing TV increased in the first half of 2009 as compared to 2008. In fact, more overseas holidays were cancelled. We had predicted earlier that low-cost airlines would make money and domestic getaways will be popular, especially, the pilgrimage getaways.

Secondly, virtual and offline socialising such as online socialising on Facebook, Twitter saw an approximately 500% growth in the number of registered users in 2009 compared against 2008.

Thirdly, we had said faith in government institutions such as banks will see a revival with a spate of fresh account openings or investments and there would be less faith in private banks. We still have to get some evidence from our banking clients on this.

There was a renewed faith in financial instruments such as bonds, gold and property as against mutual funds and equity; classical packs rather than exotic variants were sold more in the consumer products categories. Small local stores were back in favour than modern retail outlets but again we need some data from retail clients to support this. There was a pride in Indianness, which was evident at the Oscars this year because of the success of 'Slumdog Millionare'. This was more evident in the sports sector with the Indian cricket team doing well and we also captured the imagination in other sports such as billiards and boxing.

Small is better and less is more was evident in the redefined upgrades for cars. We predicted that small cars would be the focus and indeed, they were. Most auto companies just focused in that segment and it is this segment alone that has buoyed up the auto sales so far. So these are some of the basic assumptions and hypotheses, which we went in with in our slowdown study and as you can see some of them did turn out true.

Your study reveals that time spent watching TV increased by 30% but a number of media agencies in India talk about growth of ad avoidance on TV. Have you observed any change in that?

The difference between the programme rating and slot rating is usually the measure of how many people watch the porgramme and skip the ad breaks. Slot TRPs (television rating points) or the percentage of people watching a particular programme at a given point in time) have always been around 15-20% less than the programme rating, depending on the genre of programmes. Typically, on live cricket telecast, the drop in slot TRP will be much less than the drop in slot TRP in comparison with movies and general entertainment shows. This figure of a 15-20% drop has been consistent across the last two years, and has not really affected by the slowdown.

Many media pundits across the world said that traditional media's loss during the downturn will be online medium's gain. What is the trend on this front?

Investment, travel, automotive, high tech and consumer electronics are the key advertisers in the digital space. A similar trend is seen across Asia. Digital industry in India is expected to grow about 20% between 2009 and 2010. This is on a par with the trend estimated for China. Growth will be driven by search, social media and branded content, with mobile becoming ever more important in the overall digital offering with 3G/mobile internet growth.
In China, there will continue to be growth in online video space. Out-of-Home had a particularly bad year in India because of the slowdown. What was the trend in the other Asian markets? Do you foresee a recovery for this medium?
There continues to be a growth in OOH in China with the proliferation of the outdoor channels whether mobile TV in buses, or LCDs in buildings among others. We anticipate the growth in China to be 5% in line with the estimated 5% investment growth for total Asia.

Thanks and Regards,
Navneet Singh Chauhan.